random process, probability of reaching a level, moment of first reaching the level, landing of an airplane, forecasting, control
Subject:
Mathematical modeling, theory of random processes, theory of control and decision-making and their applications.The main efforts were aimed at solving the practically important problem of finding the distribution function of the moment of the first output of a vector random process on the selected part of the boundary of a given region in multidimensional space. This problem appears in studying stochastic systems in situations when normal system operation corresponds to a position of a point depicting the system in a certain region of the systems phase space, and consequences of the point leaving this region depend on which part of the regions boundary it will leave through. The scheme is proposed that allows one to find estimates of the probability of events associated with level crossings and level achievements by a non-Markovian smooth random process. The results obtained are used, in particular, in aviation to solve the problem of ensuring the safety of aircraft flight.
Biography
He graduated from the Kolmogorov Physics and Mathematics Boarding School No.18 at the Moscow State University, and only with all fives except one four in the certificate. He graduated from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Thechnology, and only with excellent marks in the grade book. In 1986, he entered the full-time postgraduate study at the Computing Center of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, defending in 1988 a Ph.D. thesis in 01.01.09 specialty - mathematical cybernetics. In the same year, he became the winner of the competition of scientific works of young scientists of the Computing Center of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. In 1996, he defended his doctoral dissertation at the Computing Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the specialty 05.13.18 - theoretical foundations of mathematical modeling, numerical methods and program complexes. In 1998, he was awarded the title of professor in the department of higher mathematics.
The results of this period of scientific activity are collected in the monograph “Outliers of Random Processes: Applications in Aviation”, published in 2005 by the Nauka publishing house, the publication of which was supported by the Department of Mathematical Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The methods proposed in the monograph and in it software implemented on a computer were used for the probabilistic assessment of the accuracy of landing real aircraft, in particular, ship-based aircraft.
In 2009-2014, he was engaged in the tasks of forecasting and managing sales of goods in retail chains. The results of these studies, supported by the RFBR grant (number 12-01-00906-a), were published in the monograph “Forecasting and Sales Management in Retail Networks”, published by Fizmatlit Publishing House in 2012. The algorithm for introducing discounts on the price of goods proposed in it when actual sales lag behind planned ones, it has been introduced and is used in a large trading network that includes about a thousand stores.
In December 2018, he was invited to make a presentation entitled “Estimating the probability that a random process first reaches the boundary of a region on a given time interval” at the flagship conference of the Control Systems Society (CSS) of the International Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) - Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), which is the most representative and most status regular conference on a planetary scale in decision theory and control theory for both deterministic and stochastic systems. The article of the same name was published in the proceedings of the CDC-2018.
In December 2019, he was invited to make a presentation entitled “Estimating the probability of safe landing for aircrafts” at the CDC-2019.
The article of the same name was published in the proceedings of the CDC-2019.
In 2019, at the initiative of the well-known English publisher Cambridge Scholars Publishing, the monograph "Crossings Problems in Random Processes Theory and Their Applications in Aviation" was published.
Main publications:
S. L. Semakov, “The probability of hitting of a level by a component of multidimensional process within prescribed interval under restrictions on the remaining components”, Theory Probab. Appl., 34:2 (1989), 357–361
S. L. Semakov, Outliers of Random Processes: Applications in Aviation, Nauka, Moscow, 2005 , 200 pp. (in Russian)
S. L. Semakov, I. S. Semakov, “Estimating the probability that a random process first reaches the boundary of a region on a given time interval”, Proceedings of the 57th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC2018) (Miami Beach, Fl, USA, December 17–19, 2018), 2018, 256–261
S. L. Semakov, Crossings problems in random processes theory and their applications in aviation, Cambridge Scholars Publishing, Newcastle, UK, 2019 , 200 pp.
S. Semakov and I. Semakov, “Method of calculating the probability of a safe landing for ship-based aircraft”, IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, 58:6 (2022), 5425–5442
S. L. Semakov, I. S. Semakov, “The first achievement of the level by a random process”, Avtomat. i Telemekh.
2.
S. L. Semakov, “The first achievement of a given level by a random process”, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 70:10 (2024), 7162–7178
3.
S. L. Semakov, “Probability of the share price going beyond the established corridor”, Proceedings of the 2024 10th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT) (Malta, Valletta, July 01–04, 2024), IEEE, 2024, 697–699
4.
S. L. Semakov, M. V. Semakova, “Thrust control for aircraft landing on a carrier”, Autom. Remote Control, 84:3 (2023), 294–304
5.
S. L. Semakov, “Estimating the probability of falling share price below the minimum level”, Proceedings of the 2023 9th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT) (Italy, Rome, July 03–06, 2023), IEEE, 2023, 142–144
S. L. Semakov et al., “The first achievement of a given level by a random process”, Proceedings of the 62nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC2023) (Singapore, Singapore, December 13-15, 2023), 2023, 3820-3825
S. Semakov and I. Semakov, “Method of calculating the probability of a safe landing for ship-based aircraft”, IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, 58:6 (2022), 5425–5442
S.L. Semakov, A.S. Semakov, “Management of price discounts in retail trade networks”, Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE Conference on Control Technology and Applications (CCTA) (Italy, Trieste, August 22-25, 2022), 2022, 522–527
9.
S.L. Semakov, “Aircraft landing strategy”, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Control, Automation and Robotics (ICCAR2021) (Singapore, Singapore, April 23–26, 2021), 2021, 184–188
S. L. Semakov, M. V. Semakova, “Probabilistic estimation of aircraft landing accuracy”, Russian Aeronautics, 63:4 (2020), 635–642
11.
Sergei Semakov, Ivan Semakov, “Probabilistic estimation of aircraft landing accuracy”, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Control, Automation and Robotics (ICCAR2020) (Singapore, Singapore, April 20–23, 2020), 2020, 450–454
S. L. Semakov, I. S. Semakov, “The probability of first reaching a desired level by a random process on a given interval”, Autom. Remote Control, 80:3 (2019), 459–473
13.
S. L. Semakov, “The information technology related to the management of sales in trading networks”, Vestnik komp’iuternykh i informatsionnykh tekhnologii, 2019, no. 3, 35–39 (in Russian)
14.
S. L. Semakov, “On one approach to the probabilistic estimation of a civilian aircraft safety landing”, Proceedings of the Moscow Aviation Institute, 2019, no. 104 , 11 pp. (in Russian)
15.
S. L. Semakov, I. S. Semakov, “Estimating the probability of safe landing for aircrafts”, Proceedings of the 58th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC2019) (Nice, France, December 11–13, 2019), 2019, 2568–2573
S. L. Semakov, I. S. Semakov, “Estimating the probability of an event related to the moment when a random process first reaches a given level”, Autom. Remote Control, 79:4 (2018), 632–640
17.
S. L. Semakov, I. S. Semakov, “Estimating the probability that a random process first reaches the boundary of a region on a given time interval”, Proceedings of the 57th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC2018) (Miami Beach, Fl, USA, December 17–19, 2018), 2018, 256–261
S. L. Semakov, I. S. Semakov, “New technology of estimating the probability that a share price will fall below the minimum level”, Vestnik komp’iuternykh i informatsionnykh tekhnologii, 2018, no. 4, 52–56 (in Russian)
19.
S. L. Semakov, “Estimating the probability that a multidimensional random process reaches the boundary of a region”, Autom. Remote Control, 76:4 (2015), 613–626
20.
S. L. Semakov, A. S. Semakov, “Management of price discounts in tradings networks”, Proceedings of Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, 6:2 (2014), 158–161 (in Russian)
21.
S. L. Semakov, A. S. Semakov, “Algorithm of introduction of discounts on the price of the seasonal goods in trading networks at backlog of actual sales from the planned”, Mat. Model., 24:9 (2012), 70–78 (in Russian)
22.
S. L. Semakov, “The application of the known solution of a problem of attaining the boundaries by non-Markovian process to estimation of probability of safe airplane landing”, J. of Computer and Systems Scienes International, 35:2 (1996), 302–308
23.
S. L. Semakov, “The probability of hitting of a level by a component of multidimensional process within prescribed interval under restrictions on the remaining components”, Theory Probab. Appl., 34:2 (1989), 357–361
24.
S. L. Semakov, “First arrival of a random process on the boundary”, Autom. Remote Control, 49:6 (1988), 757–764
25.
S. L. Semakov, “Estimation of the probability of an aircraft landing on a given surface area subject to restrictions on phase coordinates”, Scientific Notes TsAGI, 18:2 (1987), 54–61 (in Russian)
26.
S. L. Semakov, “First achievement of a level by a random process in flight dynamics problems”, Soviet Aeronautics, 29:4 (1986), 61–65
Books
27.
S. L. Semakov, Crossings problems in random processes theory and their applications in aviation, Cambridge Scholars Publishing, Newcastle, UK, 2019 , 200 pp.
28.
C. L. Semakov, A. S. Semakov, Prognozirovanie i upravlenie prodazhami v torgovykh setyakh, Fizmatlit, Moskva, 2012 , 148 pp.
29.
S. L. Semakov, Elements of Probability Theory and Random Processes, Fizmatlit, Moscow, 2011 , 232 pp. (in Russian)
30.
S. L. Semakov, Outliers of Random Processes: Applications in Aviation, Nauka, Moscow, 2005 , 200 pp. (in Russian)
Thesis
31.
S. L. Semakov, Problems of level crossings by a random process and their application in aviation in the study of landing safety problems, thesis … doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, Moscow, 1995 , 286 pp. (in Russian)
Preprints
32.
S. L. Semakov, Traction control when landing aircraft, Computing Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1995 , 28 pp. (in Russian)
33.
S. L. Semakov, Probability of the first approach of a level by a stochastic process in a prescribed interval, Computing Center of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1989 , 34 pp. (in Russian)
34.
S. L. Semakov, Probabilistic estimate of the exactness of aeroplane landing, Computing Center of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1988 , 68 pp. (in Russian)
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