Statistical analysis module for weight design of aircraft elements

The concept of a statistical analysis module for weight design of aircraft elements (for predicting weight characteristics of one or another aircraft elements) is proposed. Models, methods to construct single-point estimates of the predicted characteristic, quality criteria of constructed models are considered. Two approaches to the confidence estimation of the predicted characteristic are proposed. First approach is based on the assumption that errors at predicting are caused by inaccurate identification of the deterministic part of the predicted characteristic behavior. The second one is based on the assumption that the deterministic part of the predicted characteristic behavior is identified correctly and errors at predicting are caused by inaccuracy in the measurements. The structure, goals of each component of the software package that implements the statistical analysis module is considered in details. Based on the real data the problem of predicting the take-off mass of an empty equipped airliner depending on maximum pay load and the maximum flight distance at maximum pay load is given. By this problem applicability of considered models and methods is demonstrated.