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Mathematical Modeling
Application of the Mathematical Models Used for Estimating the Impact Probability of Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5
A. E. Derevyanka Samara State Technical University, Samara, 443100, Russia
(published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License)
Abstract:
Methods for estimating the impact probability of asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5 were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: The Monte Carlo method(statistical experiments), and as a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confidence intervals of orbital elements. It was established that the main contribution to the estimation of the impact probability makes a variation in the semimajor axis. The expected date and the estimate of the probability of collisions of asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5 with the Earth were computed.
Keywords:
99942 Apophis, 2011 AG5, impact probability, orbital elements, The Monte Carlo method.
Original article submitted 21/V/2013 revision submitted – 25/VIII/2013
Citation:
A. E. Derevyanka, “Application of the Mathematical Models Used for Estimating the Impact Probability of Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5”, Vestn. Samar. Gos. Tekhn. Univ., Ser. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki [J. Samara State Tech. Univ., Ser. Phys. Math. Sci.], 4(33) (2013), 115–121
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vsgtu1256 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vsgtu/v133/p115
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