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Vestn. Samar. Gos. Tekhn. Univ., Ser. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki [J. Samara State Tech. Univ., Ser. Phys. Math. Sci.]:
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Journal of Samara State Technical University, Ser. Physical and Mathematical Sciences, 2012, Issue 2(27), Pages 192–196
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14498/vsgtu1058 (Mi vsgtu1058) 		 
This article is cited in 3 scientific papers (total in 3 papers)

Short Communication
Celestial Mechanics and Astronomy

Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis

A. F. Zausaev, A. E. Derevyanka

Samara State Technical University, Samara, Russia
Full-text PDF (133 kB) Citations (3)
(published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License)
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.14498/vsgtu1058
Abstract: Methods for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: the Monte Carlo method, and the second one, utilizing a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confidence intervals of orbital elements. It was established that the variation in the semimajor axis makes the main contribution to the estimation of the impact probability. The expected date and the estimate of the probability of collision of asteroid Apophis and Earth were computed.
Keywords: asteroid Apophis, impact probability, orbital elements, Monte Carlo method.
Original article submitted 10/IV/2012
revision submitted – 24/V/2012
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
UDC: 519.245:521.3
MSC: Primary 85-08; Secondary 70M20, 65C05
Language: Russian
Citation: A. F. Zausaev, A. E. Derevyanka, “Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis”, Vestn. Samar. Gos. Tekhn. Univ., Ser. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki [J. Samara State Tech. Univ., Ser. Phys. Math. Sci.], 2(27) (2012), 192–196
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{ZauDer12}
\by A.~F.~Zausaev, A.~E.~Derevyanka
\paper Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis
\jour Vestn. Samar. Gos. Tekhn. Univ., Ser. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki [J. Samara State Tech. Univ., Ser. Phys. Math. Sci.]
\yr 2012
\vol 2(27)
\pages 192--196
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/vsgtu1058}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.14498/vsgtu1058}
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  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vsgtu1058
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vsgtu/v127/p192
    • This publication is cited in the following 3 articles:
    Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
    Related articles in Google Scholar: Russian articles, English articles
    		Вестник Самарского государственного технического университета. Серия: Физико-математические науки
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    Full-text PDF :210
    References:51
    First page:1
     
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