Modeling and analysis of ionospheric parameters based on generalized multicomponent model

The results of modeling and analysis of ionospheric parameters during magnetic storms in 2017-2021 are presented. We used the critical frequency variations of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2 ) (according to the ionosonde data from Paratunka site, Kamchatka peninsula, IKIR FEB RAS). The modeling was based on a generalized multicomponent model of ionospheric parameters (GMCM) developed by the authors. GMCM allows us to study in detail the dynamics of ionospheric parameters during disturbed periods. The GMCM identification is based on the combination of wavelet transform and autoregressive models (ARIMA models). The model describes three classes of anomalies characterizing strong (class 3), moderate (class 2) and weak (class 1) ionospheric disturbances. The ionospheric parameter dynamics was studied with respect to the strength of a geomagnetic disturbance (weak, moderate and strong intensity events were considered). On the basis of the modeling, we detected ionospheric anomalies of various intensity and duration. On the eve of moderate and strong magnetic storms, the fact of a high frequency of the pre-increase effect in the ionosphere was noted. It has an important applied significance.