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Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiziko-Matematicheskie Nauki, 2017, Number 1(17), Pages 54–67
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18454/2079-6641-2017-17-1-54-67 (Mi vkam192) 		 
PHYSICS

Estimation of prediction efficiency of seismic regime probabilistic model parameters

V. V. Bogdanov, A. V. Pavlov

Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18454/2079-6641-2017-17-1-54-67
Abstract: On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka earthquakes catalog the subset of random events was specified and their probabilities were calculated. The received probabilities of random events considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with energy class $K_S \geqslant14$. Their effectiveness $V$, reliability $R$ and prediction efficiency (informative) $J$ were calculated for periods of seismic activity and seismic calm.
Keywords: probability, seismicity, forecasting effectiveness.
Received: 02.11.2016
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
UDC: 550.34:519.2
MSC: 86A15
Language: Russian
Citation: V. V. Bogdanov, A. V. Pavlov, “Estimation of prediction efficiency of seismic regime probabilistic model parameters”, Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki, 2017, no. 1(17), 54–67
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{BogPav17}
\by V.~V.~Bogdanov, A.~V.~Pavlov
\paper Estimation of prediction efficiency of seismic regime probabilistic model parameters
\jour Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki
\yr 2017
\issue 1(17)
\pages 54--67
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/vkam192}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.18454/2079-6641-2017-17-1-54-67}
\elib{https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=29094399}
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