Probabilistic model of limited period liquidity goods sales dynamics

A probabilistic approach to accounting the impact of a limited period of liquidity on the volume of goods sales has been developed. The approach is based on the assumption of the random nature of economic factors deter-mining the sales dynamics of goods: production moments, purchases moments, liquidity period, quantity of goods and number of consumers. Analytical expressions for the probability function and expected value of the time dependence of the quantity of sold goods in two cases were found: without taking into account and with taking into account the moments of goods production. Numerical modelling of the dynamics of the expected value of the quantity of sold goods is carried out. It is shown that as the number of buyers grows, the market of goods becomes more and more manageable, as the real dynamics of the quantity of sold goods and the dynamics of the expected value of this quantity cease to differ from each other. The general patterns of the joint effect of the parameters of probabilistic distribution laws of the five economic factors mentioned above on the value and dynamics of the sales volume of goods were determined. Within the framework of the proposed probabilistic model, a time dependence approximating the real dynamics of sales of Lada Vesta cars on the Russian market in the period from October 2015 to May 2023 were found.