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MATHEMATICAL MODELING
Modeling factors of agricultural production efficiency by using Monte Carlo method
Yu. M. Krakovskiy, A. S. Gulyaev Irkutsk State Transport University, Irkutsk, Russia
Abstract:
Algorithmic and software support for probabilistic break-even analysis based on the Monte Carlo method
has been developed to assess the predicted values of indicators of the efficiency of agricultural production, using the
example of milk production in the Irkutsk region. The initial data for calculating the efficiency indicators are the following: fixed costs; variable costs per unit of output; average unit price; milk production; the amount of subsidies. To
assess the efficiency of milk production, the following performance indicators are selected: operating profit, profitability of subsidies, payback period of subsidies. The functionality of the created software is described. The software
helps test the models of the initial data, display the test results on the interface, as well as in visualized form, using
graphs and histograms to display. Based on the developed software there have been obtained the point and interval estimates of the listed efficiency indicators. A check of the compliance of the forecast value of operating profit with the
real value of this profit in 2020 was carried out. There has been stated a relevance of these values, the real value fell
into the confidence interval defined during the simulation. The functionality of the created software made it possible
to assess with high accuracy the predicted values of milk production efficiency indicators. In the future, the software
can be upgraded by supplementing it with other probabilistic models of the initial data, as well as by expanding the
modeled efficiency indicators, which will allow for a more detailed assessment of the predicted values of efficiency
indicators including other types of agricultural products.
Keywords:
efficiency factors, probabilistic break-even analysis, Monte Carlo method, payback of subsidies, profitability of subsidies, payback period, confidence interval, manufacturing agricultural products.
Received: 08.11.2021 Accepted: 29.12.2021
Citation:
Yu. M. Krakovskiy, A. S. Gulyaev, “Modeling factors of agricultural production efficiency by using Monte Carlo method”, Vestn. Astrakhan State Technical Univ. Ser. Management, Computer Sciences and Informatics, 2022, no. 1, 99–106
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vagtu711 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vagtu/y2022/i1/p99
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Statistics & downloads: |
Abstract page: | 459 | Full-text PDF : | 27 | References: | 17 |
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