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This article is cited in 1 scientific paper (total in 1 paper)
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT
Regression models of assessing influence of economic indicators on amount of services in information and communication technologies
S. I. Noskov, A. S. Vergasov Irkutsk State Transport University,
Irkutsk, Russian Federation
Abstract:
The paper highlights the results of a regression model contest organized using the
computing technology and presents the mathematical models of the impact of economic indicators
(the cost of exported crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, direct investment abroad and to
Russia, the volume of GDP) on the amount of exports and imports of telecommunications, computer and information services (ICT). The choice of such output indicators in the model is stipulated
by a significant growth of the ICT world market over the past decades. Besides, the relative growth
of telecommunications, computer and information services is much more dynamic compared to
services in the conventional spheres such as transportation, construction, and goods processing.
Another important reason for choosing these particular indicators is a high level of participation of
IT enterprises in the ICT services export. According to some estimates, about 2,000 firms in the industry are involved. In other words, more than 60% of ICT enterprises in Russia are exporting their
services to foreign countries, the most countries-importers of ICT services from Russia being the
European countries and the United States. The amount of ICT services, as follows from the formal
and meaningful analysis of the constructed models, is more than 50% provided by the level of development of the country's economy, in which GDP is the main indicator. At the same time, the
dynamics of both export and import of telecommunications, computer and information services is
also significantly influenced by the cost of exported raw materials: crude oil, oil products and natural gas. The models presented in the work can be effectively used for further detailed analysis of
the influence of macroeconomic factors on the development of information and computer technologies and for solving a wide range of medium and short term forecasting problems.
Keywords:
information and computer technologies, amount of import and export, regression model, model competition, adequacy criteria, oil, petroleum products and natural gas, gross domestic product.
Received: 05.07.2021
Citation:
S. I. Noskov, A. S. Vergasov, “Regression models of assessing influence of economic indicators on amount of services in information and communication technologies”, Vestn. Astrakhan State Technical Univ. Ser. Management, Computer Sciences and Informatics, 2021, no. 4, 95–103
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vagtu697 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/vagtu/y2021/i4/p95
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