Mathematical modeling of risk management in transport logistics

The article considers the business processes at the transport logistics enterprises as a chain of clear regulations, where noncompliance or delay of one of them results in disruption of the whole process. Risk management is one of the key tasks requiring the development of modeling tools and prevention of undesirable situations. There has been shown a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration. The tree of goals of the transport logistics enterprise was built. Failure to achieve a particular goal is considered as a risk situation, or a risk. A set of factors for assessing its implementation is opposed to each goal, formulas for calculating the indicators used are given. A model of scenarios of all existing significant risks has been developed. A multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic model, a cascade logical-probabilistic model and a multi-level cascade hybrid logical-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port/transport enterprise are proposed. The main idea is the need to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical-probabilistic models and simulation, where the interpretation of the results is possible using logical and probabilistic models and scenarios. The proposed models make it possible to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various levels of management, as well as to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. The integrated use of all these models is the basis for the development of timely management decisions. Particular attention is paid to the description of the technology for constructing logical, probabilistic and scenario models of various types.