Simulation of spreading forest fire under nonstationarity and uncertainty by means of artificial intelligence and deep machine learning

The article describes the results of increasing the efficiency of operational forecast of the forest fire dynamics under nonstationarity and uncertainty through the fire dynamics modeling based on artificial intelligence and deep machine learning. To achieve the goal there were used following methods: system analysis method, theory of neural networks, deep machine learning method, method of operational forecasting of the forest fire dynamics, method of filtering images (modified median filter), MoSCoW method, and ER-method. In the course of study there have been developed forest fire forecasting models (models of treetop and ground fires) using artificial neural networks. The developed models solve the recognition and forecasting problems in order to determine the dynamics of forest fires in successive images and generating images with a forecast of fire spread. There has been given the general logical scheme of the proposed forest fire forecasting models involving five stages: stage 1 — data input; stage 2 — preprocessing of input data (format check; size check; noise removal); stage 3 — object recognition using Convolutional Neural Networks (recognition of fire data; recognition of data on environmental factors; recognition of data on the nature of forest plantations); stage 4 — development of forest fire forecasting; stage 5 — output of the generated image with the operational forecast. To build and train artificial neural networks, a visual forest fire dynamics database was proposed to use. The developed forest fire forecasting models are based on a tree of artificial neural networks in the form of an acyclic graph and identify dependencies between the dynamics of a forest fire and the characteristics of the external and internal environment.