The development of the mathematical model of predicting the indicators of accreditation of technical universities in the Russian Federation

The paper presents the system of predicting the indicators of accreditation of techni al universities based on J. Forrester mechanism of system dynamics. According to analysis of cause-and-effect relationships between selected variables of the system (indicators of accredit tion of the university) there was built the oriented graph. The complex of mathematical models d veloped to control the quality of training engineers in Russian based on this graph. The article presents an algorithm for constructing a model using one of the s mulated variables as an example. The model is a system of non modelling characteristics of the educational process being determined according to the solution of this system. The proposed algorithm for calculating these indicators is based on the system d namics model and the regression model. The mathematical model is constructed on the ba model of system dynamics, which is further tested for compliance with real data using the regre sion model. The regression model is built on the available statistical data accumulated during the period of the university's work. The proposed appr of managing the educational process in universities. The structure of the proposed model repeats the structure of cause-effect relationships in the system, and also provides the person responsible for managing quality control with the ability to quickly and adequately assess the performance of the system.