Software for modeling and forecasting of the basic indicators of national security of the Russian Federation

The main indicators of national security, according to Presidential Decree N 683 "On National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation" are: satisfaction of citizens with a degree of protection of their constitutional rights and freedoms, personal and property interests, including criminal encroachments; share of the modern weapons, military and special equipment in the Russian Armed Forces; life expectancy; gross domestic product per capita; inflation; share of expenditure in the gross domestic product for culture, as well as for the development of science, technology and education; a part of the territory of the Russian Federation, that do not meet the environmental standards. The mathematical basis of the program is a model of the system dynamics, which allows to formalize complex cause-and-effect relationships between the elements. The developed mathematical model, consisting of the following elements: the system levels (the simulated variables), streams conveying the content of one level to another, decision-making procedures and the channels of information, is described. The simulated variables in the developed model are the main indicators of Russian national security. Software product is developed in GUIDE MatLab and allows the calculation of the predicted values of national security indicators at varying time intervals and the given initial conditions. The diagram of the transition of program management focus is presented. The calculation algorithm of the program is based on the solution of the systems of ordinary differential equations by Runge–Kutta method of the $4^{\mathrm{th}}$ order. The main stages of the program operations are analyzed. The scope of the developed software product is described.