Approaches to the simulation of personal income variations during epidemics

This study proposes two models representing the impact of the virus spread on such macroeconomic metrics as the labor force size and per capita income. The first model combines the SIR compartmental epidemics modeling and the Lotka-Volterra model. The second one extends the proposed differential model to the optimal control problem. The simulation results are compared with each other and real-world data for the Novosibirsk Region, 2020–2021. We used several scenarios for the optimal control model to further expand the model to other economic and epidemiological conditions.