System of models for the assessment of programs of insurance of income in agriculture

The features of income insurance in agriculture are given. Unlike from the most popular multi-risk insurance programs the income insurance program insures from the losses due weather factors along with changes in forecast prices. Mathematical models of economy of the insurance company and agricultural firm with income insurance are given. These models differ from the models of crop insurance in the way of insurance payments describing. In addition to the random yield of insured crops the uncertain factors such as real prices at the harvest time are added in income insurance program. There are two types of information in the income insurance programs: information about the harvest and about the prices of products. The forecast price at the time of the insurance contract and the real price at the harvest time at which the insurance premiums calculated are in the calculations. Information on crop yields is presented by time series with different trends explained both by changes in weather conditions and by the of anthropogenic factors. A method for processing of such information is proposed. It represents the trend of time series as a linear spline where unknown coefficients are found by the least square method. Important information problems related to the forecast price for products are discussed. A method of using information both about the prices and cropness is proposed.