Economy-mathematical model of the system researches process organization

The paper considers the problem of improving the quality of state strategic planning and forecasting. It is assumed that the model of the controlled system is built for the development of management decisions in the course of the so-called system studies. Mathematical models of this process, models of strategic decision-making and their impact on social welfare are developed in order to analyze the impact of the organization of the system research process on the quality of the resulting model and on the quality of strategic management decisions.The process of formation of the estimated society utility function is described. The accuracy and quality of management decisions are formalized. The conditions of "robustness" of the managed system to distortions of the target function of society and optimal policy are described. The expected number of factors taken into account from the total number of potentially significant factors depending on the number of experts participating in the system research is determined. This makes it possible to estimate the minimum allowed “threshold” number of experts required to build an adequate model of the controlled system. Computer statistical modeling in MatLab package by Monte Carlo method was carried out for calculations on this model.