Management of technological portfolio of energy companies: scenario approach

On an example of an energy company we study the optimal timing for the company to widely implement alternative technologies to production activity. We employ the method of simulation of the energy company profit with respect to different strategies of investment into traditional and alternative energy technologies to test the hypothesis of profit dependence on the scenario of alternative technologies’ profitability dynamics. We consider the scenarios of alternative energy technology efficiency growth corresponding to the initial and the final stage of a technological gap.