Modeling spread of HIV as result of social maladjustment IN population

The aim of the research is to construct methods for estimation of effectiveness of HIV-infection spread counteraction measures for Russian territories. It has been found that regional inequity in HIV prevalence is closely linked with prevalence of alcohol and drug abuse, which could be considered as a value of social maladjustment in population. Accounting influence of these processes on HIV risk-group formation allows explaining regional epidemic scale inequity and evaluate effectiveness of counteraction measures. We introduce the model, put the problem of model identification based on the data of Russian regions, and present results of data analysis.