Reliability approach to the analysis of the stability of engineering infrastructure

Issues of safety and sustainability of critical infrastructure are of particular importance for the life of the population of any state. This is caused by a large number of threats of internal and external nature, to which the critical infrastructure and its most important component - engineering are subject. The variety of engineering systems included in the critical infrastructure and their features and mutual dependence have led to the emergence of various definitions of the concept of sustainability of engineering infrastructure, the development of various mathematical models for their study. Based on the evaluation of existing models and concepts, it is shown that the analysis of the stability of engineering infrastructure can be performed within the framework of reliability analysis with the involvement of data on the characteristics of destructive factors, their intensity and geographical area of action. These factors affect the failure rate of equipment, vulnerability and stability of the system. The importance of solving the direct problem of assessing the stability of engineering infrastructure and the inverse problem of finding critical sections is shown. To solve the inverse problem, a topological model of the system and a method of probabilistic modeling are used in the search for cross sections. The proposed results have methodological and practical components that are important for improving infrastructure security at the stages of system design and operation.