Upravlenie Bol'shimi Sistemami
RUS  ENG    JOURNALS   PEOPLE   ORGANISATIONS   CONFERENCES   SEMINARS   VIDEO LIBRARY   PACKAGE AMSBIB  
General information
Latest issue
Archive
Impact factor

Search papers
Search references

RSS
Latest issue
Current issues
Archive issues
What is RSS



UBS:
Year:
Volume:
Issue:
Page:
Find






Personal entry:
Login:
Password:
Save password
Enter
Forgotten password?
Register


Upravlenie Bol'shimi Sistemami, 2020, Issue 87, Pages 101–130
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25728/ubs.2020.87.6
(Mi ubs1060)
 

This article is cited in 1 scientific paper (total in 1 paper)

Control in Social and Economic Systems

Experimental studies on the test questions based on the histogram ratio

N. Kalmykova, Yu. V. Sidel'nikovab

a V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS, Moscow
b Moscow Aviation Institute (State Technical University)
References:
Abstract: The article proposes a histogram ratio as a tool of an integral assessment of the degree of confidence of experts in their estimates. Herewith, the experts evaluate test questions presented in the form of a problem. Experimental studies of test questions based on this ratio are proposed as a tool for studying the phenomenon of over-confidence among experts. A hypothesis about the correlation between the degree of confidence of an expert in his assessment and a posteriori assessment of his accuracy is proposed and substantiated. Explanations of the factors that determine the correctness of the conclusions obtained in these studies are provided. Requirements for the form and type of test questions have been introduced. Also, hypotheses that characterize the dynamics of changes in the values of the histogram ratio from the sample size are proposed and experimentally substantiated, and their consistency is confirmed. The dynamics of the integral assessment of experts ' confidence in their assessments were studied. The factors on which the conclusions of experimental studies depend are revealed. It is shown that the histogram ratio is not only an integral assessment of the degree of confidence of experts in their estimates, but also an analogue of any discrete indicator of the error of a particular expert when evaluating a particular question.
Keywords: expert appraisals, test question, histogram ratio.
Received: August 31, 2020
Published: September 30, 2020
Document Type: Article
UDC: 303.833.5+303.832.32
BBC: 65.054. 3+ 16.23+ 87.256.643
Language: Russian
Citation: N. Kalmykov, Yu. V. Sidel'nikov, “Experimental studies on the test questions based on the histogram ratio”, UBS, 87 (2020), 101–130
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{KalSid20}
\by N.~Kalmykov, Yu.~V.~Sidel'nikov
\paper Experimental studies on the test questions based on the histogram ratio
\jour UBS
\yr 2020
\vol 87
\pages 101--130
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/ubs1060}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.25728/ubs.2020.87.6}
Linking options:
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/ubs1060
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/ubs/v87/p101
  • This publication is cited in the following 1 articles:
    Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
    Related articles in Google Scholar: Russian articles, English articles
    Upravlenie Bol'shimi Sistemami
    Statistics & downloads:
    Abstract page:130
    Full-text PDF :53
    References:28
     
      Contact us:
     Terms of Use  Registration to the website  Logotypes © Steklov Mathematical Institute RAS, 2024