Modeling of the global oil market: research and results

The article analyzes the problems of modeling and forecasting the world oil market, and also provides an overview of approaches and models in this area. The main stages of development of the world oil market are presented and the events that led to structural changes in the behavior of oil prices are analyzed. The key factors affecting the formation of oil prices are presented, and their relationship is examined. One of the popular applications of mathematical models for forecasting the global oil market, which is considered in the article, is the use of econometric analysis methods, including VAR structural models. Another interesting area is related to the use of games and behavioral models. Widely used models of market equilibrium analysis considering various market structures based on MPEC models. Of considerable practical interest are also methods that combine game models, methods of multi-agent modeling, and modeling based on expert information. The analysis presented in the work shows that in many cases the use of mathematical models for forecasting the world oil market is useful, it allows you to get closer to understanding the mechanisms of its functioning and the relationship of its parameters. However, they still cannot fully cope with the problem of forecasting the world oil market.