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On the symmetrized chi-square tests in autoregression with outliers in data
M. V. Boldin Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics
Abstract:
A linear stationary model $\mathrm{AR}(p)$ with unknown expectation,
coefficients, and the distribution function of innovations $G(x)$ is
considered. Autoregression observations contain gross errors (outliers,
contaminations). The distribution of contaminations $\Pi$ is unknown, their
intensity is $\gamma n^{-1/2}$ with unknown $\gamma$, and $n$ is the number
of observations. The main problem here (among others) is to test the
hypothesis on the normality of innovations $\boldsymbol H_{\Phi}\colon G
(x)\in \{\Phi(x/\theta),\,\theta>0\}$, where $\Phi(x)$ is the distribution
function of the normal law $\boldsymbol N(0,1)$. In this setting, the
previously constructed tests for autoregression with zero expectation do not
apply. As an alternative, we propose special symmetrized chi-square type
tests. Under the hypothesis and $\gamma=0$, their asymptotic distribution is
free. We study the asymptotic power under local alternatives in the form of
the mixture $G(x)=A_{n,\Phi}(x):=(1-n^{-1/2})\Phi(x/\theta_0)+n^{-1/2}H(x)$,
where $H(x)$ is a distribution function, and $\theta_0^2$ is the unknown
variance of the innovations under $\boldsymbol H_{\Phi}$. The asymptotic
qualitative robustness of the tests is established in terms of equicontinuity
of the family of limit powers (as functions of $\gamma$, $\Pi,$ and $H(x)$)
relative to $\gamma$ at the point $\gamma=0$.
Keywords:
autoregression, outliers, residuals, empirical distribution function, chi-square test, local alternatives, robustness.
Received: 16.02.2022 Accepted: 29.03.2022
Citation:
M. V. Boldin, “On the symmetrized chi-square tests in autoregression with outliers in data”, Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 68:4 (2023), 691–704; Theory Probab. Appl., 68:4 (2024), 559–569
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp5559https://doi.org/10.4213/tvp5559 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp/v68/i4/p691
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Statistics & downloads: |
Abstract page: | 95 | Full-text PDF : | 2 | References: | 31 | First page: | 11 |
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