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Teoriya Veroyatnostei i ee Primeneniya, 2020, Volume 65, Issue 2, Pages 368–408
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4213/tvp5351
(Mi tvp5351)
 

Incentive-compatible surveys via posterior probabilities

J. Cvitanica, D. Prelecbc, S. Radasdb, H. Sikice

a California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Pasadena, CA, USA
b Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, MA, USA
c Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Cambridge, MA, USA
d The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Republic of Croatia
e University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics, Zagreb, Republic of Croatia
References:
Abstract: We consider the problem of eliciting truthful responses to a survey question when the respondents share a common prior that the survey planner is agnostic about. The planner would therefore like to have a “universal” mechanism, which would induce honest answers for all possible priors. If the planner also requires a locality condition that ensures that the mechanism payoffs are determined by the respondents' posterior probabilities of the true state of nature, we prove that, under additional smoothness and sensitivity conditions, the payoff in the truth-telling equilibrium must be a logarithmic function of those posterior probabilities. Moreover, the respondents are necessarily ranked according to those probabilities. Finally, we discuss implementation issues.
Keywords: proper scoring rules, robust/universal mechanisms, Bayesian truth serum, mechanism implementation, ranking experts.
Received: 07.10.2018
English version:
Theory of Probability and its Applications, 2020, Volume 65, Issue 2, Pages 292–321
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1137/S0040585X97T989957
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
Language: Russian
Citation: J. Cvitanic, D. Prelec, S. Radas, H. Sikic, “Incentive-compatible surveys via posterior probabilities”, Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 65:2 (2020), 368–408; Theory Probab. Appl., 65:2 (2020), 292–321
Citation in format AMSBIB
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\by J.~Cvitanic, D.~Prelec, S.~Radas, H.~Sikic
\paper Incentive-compatible surveys via posterior probabilities
\jour Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen.
\yr 2020
\vol 65
\issue 2
\pages 368--408
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/tvp5351}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.4213/tvp5351}
\transl
\jour Theory Probab. Appl.
\yr 2020
\vol 65
\issue 2
\pages 292--321
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.1137/S0040585X97T989957}
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\scopus{https://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?origin=inward&eid=2-s2.0-85090680711}
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  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp5351
  • https://doi.org/10.4213/tvp5351
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp/v65/i2/p368
  • Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
    Related articles in Google Scholar: Russian articles, English articles
    Теория вероятностей и ее применения Theory of Probability and its Applications
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