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This article is cited in 13 scientific papers (total in 13 papers)
Well-calibrated, coherent forecasting systems
P. Bertia, E. Regazzinib, P. Rigoa a Dipartimento di Statistica, ``G. Parenti'', Italy
b IMQ-Universita' ``L. Bocconi'', Italy
Abstract:
This paper introduces a definition of predictive inference based on sequential observations in the light of de Finetti's principle of coherence. It includes characterizations of coherent predictive inferences and of strategic predictive inferences. It thoroughly analyzes the concepts of well calibrated and finitarily well calibrated forecasting systems. Apropos to this subject, some new laws of large numbers are assessed with reference to finitarily additive probability distributions. These results are then used to critically confute some objections raised against the coherence principle.
Keywords:
calibration, coherence, conditional probability, conglomerability, extension, finite additivity, predictive inference, strategy.
Received: 27.04.1994
Citation:
P. Berti, E. Regazzini, P. Rigo, “Well-calibrated, coherent forecasting systems”, Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen., 42:1 (1997), 144–168; Theory Probab. Appl., 42:1 (1998), 82–102
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp1717https://doi.org/10.4213/tvp1717 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/tvp/v42/i1/p144
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Abstract page: | 292 | Full-text PDF : | 161 | First page: | 5 |
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