Hybrid Logical and Probabilistic Models for Risk Management of Systems

We offer a new approach to analysis and economic safety management in socioeconomic systems (SES) on the basis of a new scientific discipline “top-economics” as further development of works by Nobel Prize Laureates J. Buchanan and J. Heckman. We introduce the “invalidity” concept by analogy with reliability and safety in engineering. We use new Boolean events-propositions and new LP risk models for economic safety management.
Logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models of SES take into account initiating events (IEs), which depend on the state, business, science and society, and signal events about changes in economics, politics, law, innovations, natural disasters and wars, global market fluctuations in order to correct probabilities of IEs.
We have performed generalizations in the development of hybrid LP-models for estimation and analysis of SES failure risk. Properties, advantages and features of “invalidity” and “top-economics” have been determined. Examples of the following hybrid LP risk models of SESs have been developed: counteraction to corruption, counteraction to drug addiction, country’s innovation system management.
We present examples of scenarios of failure of subjects (government, business, scientists and society) that solve the problem, and objects (tasks) that are the essence of the problem. Structural, logical and probabilistic risk models of SESs failure are stated. Software “Expa” (for synthesis of probabilities of events in hybrid LP-models using expert information) and “Arbiter” (for structural and logical modeling of hybrid LP risk models) are described.