Analysis of relationships between indicators in forecasting cargo transportation

The authors analyze relationship and conformity between indicators in control system, monitoring of state, and accounting of railway cargo transportation. Macroeconomic time series that contain control actions, system state, and target criteria are considered. The authors suppose that control actions, state, and goal-setting are statistically related. Granger causality test is used to establish a relationship between time series. It is assumed that a pair of time series are related if the use of the history of one of the series improves the quality of the forecast of the other. The main goal of this analysis is to improve the quality of cargo transportation forecast. The computational experiment is carried out on data about cargo transportation, control actions, and set target criteria.