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Sibirskii Zhurnal Industrial'noi Matematiki, 2011, Volume 14, Number 2, Pages 45–54
(Mi sjim665)
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A credit risk estimate for long-term financial flows basing on statistical modeling
S. S. Artem'evab, Yu. I. Ashchepkovab, M. A. Yakunina a Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Novosibirsk, RUSSIA
b Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, RUSSIA
Abstract:
We consider a mathematical model of long-term financial flows as the sum of a random number of random variables. For the particular case of flows in retirement funds we obtain distributions of gains and losses at a given moment in the distant future. We present the results of simulations using the statistical modeling of financial flows. We describe a program for estimating the credit risk of a retirement fund for various development scenarios of the world and regional economies.
Keywords:
payment flow, sum of random variables, probability density, statistical modeling.
Received: 20.08.2010 Revised: 06.12.2010
Citation:
S. S. Artem'ev, Yu. I. Ashchepkova, M. A. Yakunin, “A credit risk estimate for long-term financial flows basing on statistical modeling”, Sib. Zh. Ind. Mat., 14:2 (2011), 45–54
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/sjim665 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/sjim/v14/i2/p45
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