Methods of predictive estimates of socio-economics national security indicators

A complex of system dynamics models is developed for forecasting main indicators of Russia's socio-economic development with an impact on national security. Graph of cause-and-effect relations between indicators under study is taken as a basis for constructing the complex of mathematical models. Based on it the system of non-linear differential equations is built, allowing to analyze the state of Russia's national security. The analysis of ruble/euro rate impact on socio-economic national security indicators in Russia is carried out using the proposed complex of models.