Parametric control of agricultural development based on cognitive modeling

The concept of parametric control is used to prove the existence of a contradiction between the growth of agricultural production and the lack of conditions for expanded reproduction in Russian agriculture. This contradiction is the main limitation of agricultural growth in the country. The theoretical foundations of parametric control are specified for socio-economic systems and the parameterization stage of the controlled system is included in the control process. A control action should be chosen by comparing the estimates of two blocks of parameters. The first block assesses the potential of an external control action affecting the system. The second block of parameters shows the internal potential of the controlled system. If the estimates do not match, the control process has a contradiction, and the control action should be corrected. Fuzzy cognitive modeling is used to determine the contradiction in the control of agricultural development. A fuzzy cognitive map of Russian agriculture is constructed using expert assessments and correlation-regression analysis according to statistical data for the period 2000–2020. The structural-target analysis of this map is performed and its system indicators are calculated to identify the main limitations in agricultural dynamic processes. Agricultural development is forecasted through the scenario analysis of the fuzzy cognitive map. According to the cognitive modeling results, the control action potential exceeds the agricultural growth potential. Therefore, for sustainable long-term agricultural growth in Russia, it is necessary to change approaches to agricultural management.