Estimating the influence of environmental factors on mortality in elder age groups: an example of Krasnoyarsk

This paper analyzes and forecasts the influence of climatic parameters and air quality on the mortality of the Krasnoyarsk industrial agglomeration. The long-term climatic data for the city of Krasnoyarsk are studied. The diseases sensitive to climate change are considered for the period from 2011 to 2014. The relationship between climatic parameters, air pollution, and the number of deaths is established using multivariate statistical analysis. The factors with the greatest contribution to mortality for climate-dependent diseases are identified. The mortality causes associated with negative environmental factors are examined. The age groups most affected by climatic parameters and air pollution are determined. As shown below, the nonlinear Poisson regression model predicts population mortality quite close to the factual data.