Modeling of scenario development of rural territories based on fuzzy cognitive model

Application of cognitive modeling to such complex semistructured social and economic systems as rural territories is considered. The fuzzy cognitive model of complex development of rural territories is developed, a set of significant parameters (concepts) of model is determined in backbone spheres of activity, such as social, demographic, economic, institutional and ecological. The technology of modeling is complemented with authors' techniques of parametrical identification of fuzzy cognitive maps and its scenario analysis on the basis of fuzzy model of pulse process. On the basis of the structural and target analysis of system indicators of the fuzzy cognitive map its defined that the greatest impact on target concepts and a system in general is made by factors of the institutional environment, such as development of market infrastructure and rural self-government, which defines them as the most effective applications of the operating influences. The results of scenario modeling of model of complex development of rural territories allowing planning and quick estimation of development of a territorial recreational system in the conditions of the fast-changing external environment are presented. Results of the research can be used by state authorities of agro-industrial complex on all levels for forming effective strategy and developing programs of social and economic development of rural territories.