Methods of hierarchical hybrid cognitive map factors estimation on the example of assessment of energy consumption in regions

The methods are presented of fuzzy assessment of factors while analyzing the hierarchical cognitive map, describing the complex multifactor situation. The assessments of current values of factors, connected with indicators, are determined by interpreting the indicators values. The procedure of automatic design of membership functions is suggested, the peculiarity of which consists in taking into account the outliers in sampling and the differences in external conditions for regions. The assessments of factors changes are determined by interpreting the incremental values of indicators and the trends characteristics. The application of the suggested methods of factors assessment is illustrated on an example of heat energy consumption in the regions in the Russian Federation.