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Principle Seminar of the Department of Probability Theory, Moscow State University
October 8, 2008 16:45, Moscow, MSU, auditorium 16-24
 


On the optimality of the rule "Buy-and-Hold"

A. N. Shiryaev

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Abstract: Let (B,S) be a financial structure with a bank account B=(Bt)t0,dBt=rBtdt,B0=1 and a stock S=(St)t0,dSt=St(μdt+σdWt),S0=1, where W=(Wt)t0 is a standard Wiener process("Black-Scholes model"). Denote Pt=St/Bt,t[0,T],MT=maxt[0,T]Pt and let v=v(x),x0, be an utility function (e.g., v(x)=logx,v(x)=x).
In the talk we present results of finding optimal stopping time (a time of selling the stock) in the problem

supτMTEv(PτMT),

where MT is the class of stopping times that take values in [0,T].
Also we consider a problem where μ changes its values by jumps.
 
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