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Principle Seminar of the Department of Probability Theory, Moscow State University
October 8, 2008 16:45, Moscow, MSU, auditorium 16-24
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On the optimality of the rule "Buy-and-Hold"
A. N. Shiryaev |
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Abstract:
Let (B,S) be a financial structure with a bank account B=(Bt)t≥0,dBt=rBtdt,B0=1 and a stock S=(St)t≥0,dSt=St(μdt+σdWt),S0=1, where W=(Wt)t≥0 is a standard Wiener process("Black-Scholes model").
Denote Pt=St/Bt,t∈[0,T],MT=maxt∈[0,T]Pt and let v=v(x),x≥0, be an utility function (e.g., v(x)=logx,v(x)=x). In the talk we present results of finding optimal stopping time (a time of selling the stock) in the problem
supτ∈MTEv(PτMT),
where MT is the class of stopping times that take values in [0,T]. Also we consider a problem where μ changes its values by jumps.
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