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Principle Seminar of the Department of Probability Theory, Moscow State University
November 12, 2008 16:45, Moscow, MSU, auditorium 16-24
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Ruin Analysis in the Constant Elasticity of Variance Model
R. Sh. Liptser |
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Abstract:
We give results on the probability of absorption at zero of the
diffusion process with non-Lipschitz diffusion coefficient
$$
dX_t=\mu X_tdt+\sigma X^\gamma_tdB_t,
$$
with $X_0=K>>1$, and $1/2\le \gamma<1$. \quad In finance this is
known as the Constant Elasticity of Variance Model and our results
give information on the time to ruin $\tau_0=\inf\{t:X_t=0\}$. We
show that $P(\tau_0\le T)>0$ for all $T$, give the probability of
ultimate ruin, and establish asymptotics
$$
\lim\limits_{K\to\infty}
\frac{1}{K^{2(1-\gamma)}}\log\mathsf{P}(\tau_{0 }\le T)
=-\frac{1}{\sigma^2}\begin{cases}
\frac{\mu}{(1-\gamma)[1-e^{-2\mu(1-\gamma)T}]} , & \mu\ne 0
\\
\frac{1}{2(1-\gamma)^2T}, & \mu=0.
\end{cases}
$$
In addition, an approximation to the most likely paths to ruin is
given with the help of Freidlin-Wentzell's natural modification the
LDP result.
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