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Principle Seminar of the Department of Probability Theory, Moscow State University
February 17, 2016 16:45–17:45, Moscow, MSU, auditorium 12-24
 


CUSUM-statistics and its optimality in Lorden's criterion

A. N. Shiryaevab

a Steklov Mathematical Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
b Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics

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Abstract: If Pθ, θ[0,] is a family of probability measures, which are locally absolutely continuous in the measure P, then the quantity dPθdP, the likelihood ratio, is well known. The value of
γt=supθtdPθdP(0,t)  
is called the CUSUM-statistics (CUSUM = cumulative sum). For the disorder problem Lorden proposed the following criterion of optimality
D=infτ0supθ0esssupωEθ((τθ)+|Fθ)(ω),
where τ is stopping time.
In the talk it will be discussed how, for this criterion, (in the case of the Brownian motion whose drift is changed at the moment θ) the CUSUM-optimality is proved.
 
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