Abstract:
If Pθ, θ∈[0,∞] is a family of
probability measures, which are locally absolutely continuous in the measure
P∞, then the quantity
dPθdP∞, the likelihood ratio, is
well known. The value of
γt=supθ⩽tdPθdP∞(0,t)
is called the CUSUM-statistics (CUSUM = cumulative sum).
For the disorder problem Lorden proposed the following criterion of
optimality
D=infτ⩾0supθ⩾0esssupωEθ((τ−θ)+|Fθ)(ω),
where τ is stopping time.
In the talk it will be discussed how, for this criterion, (in the case of the
Brownian motion whose drift is changed at the moment θ) the
CUSUM-optimality is proved.