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Prikladnaya Mekhanika i Tekhnicheskaya Fizika, 2009, Volume 50, Issue 2, Pages 156–166
(Mi pmtf1728)
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This article is cited in 3 scientific papers (total in 3 papers)
Optimal forecasting of natural processes with uncertainty assessment
V. V. Penenko, E. A. Tsvetova Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Abstract:
The problem of optimal forecasting of environmental changes induced by various factors is discussed. The proposed technique is based on variational principles and methods of the sensitivity theory with allowance for uncertainties in mathematical models and input data. Optimal forecasting is understood as forecasting where the estimates of cost functionals are independent of variations of the sought state functions. In addition to state functions, the forecasted characteristics include risk and vulnerability functions for receptor areas and quantification of uncertainties.
Keywords:
optimal forecasting, mathematical modeling, quality of environment, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, convection, diffusion, and reaction equations.
Received: 24.11.2008
Citation:
V. V. Penenko, E. A. Tsvetova, “Optimal forecasting of natural processes with uncertainty assessment”, Prikl. Mekh. Tekh. Fiz., 50:2 (2009), 156–166; J. Appl. Mech. Tech. Phys., 50:2 (2009), 300–308
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/pmtf1728 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/pmtf/v50/i2/p156
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Abstract page: | 26 | Full-text PDF : | 15 |
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