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Nonlinear engineering and robotics
Modelling the Effect of Virulent Variants with SIR
G. Nakamuraab, S. Plaszczynskiab, B. Grammaticosab, M. Badoualab a Université Paris-Saclay,
CNRS/IN2P3, IJCLab, 91405 Orsay, France
b Université de Paris,
IJCLab, 91405 Orsay France
Abstract:
We study the effect of an emerging virus mutation on the evolution of an epidemic, inspired
by the appearance of the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. We show that if the new variant is
markedly more infective than the existing ones the epidemic can resurge immediately. The
vaccination of the population plays a crucial role in the evolution of the epidemic. When the older
(and more vulnerable) layers of the population are protected, the new infections concern mainly
younger people, resulting in fewer hospitalisations and a reduced stress on the health system. We
study also the effects of vacations, partially effective vaccines and vaccination strategies based
on epidemic-awareness. An important finding concerns vaccination deniers: their attitude may
lead to a prolonged wave of epidemic and an increased number of hospital admissions.
Keywords:
epidemic, vaccination, seasonality, recruitment, SIR model.
Received: 13.07.2021 Accepted: 12.10.2021
Citation:
G. Nakamura, S. Plaszczynski, B. Grammaticos, M. Badoual, “Modelling the Effect of Virulent Variants with SIR”, Rus. J. Nonlin. Dyn., 17:4 (2021), 475–490
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/nd772 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/nd/v17/i4/p475
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