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Trudy Moskovskogo Matematicheskogo Obshchestva, 2022, Volume 83, Issue 1, Pages 63–75 (Mi mmo667)  

Mathematical model of the spread of a pandemic like COVID-19

A. G. Sergeeva, A. Kh. Khachatryanb, Kh. A. Khachatryancd

a Steklov Mathematical Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
b National Agrarian University of Armenia
c Yerevan State University
d Institute of Mathematics, National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Yerevan
References:
Abstract: Using the example of the infectious disease called COVID-19, a mathematical model of the spread of a pandemic is considered. The virus that causes this disease emerged at the end of 2019 and spread to most countries around the world over the next year. A mathematical model of the emerging pandemic, called the SEIR-model (from the English words susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered), is described by a system of four ordinary dynamical equations given in §1.
The indicated system is reduced to a nonlinear integral equation of Hammerstein–Volterra type with an operator that does not have the property of monotonicity. In §3, we prove a theorem on the existence and uniqueness of a non-negative, bounded and summable solution of this system.
Based on real data on the COVID-19 disease in France and Italy, given in §2, numerical calculations are performed showing the absence of a second wave for the obtained solution.
Funding agency Grant number
Russian Science Foundation 19-11-00316
Russian Foundation for Basic Research 18-51-05009
Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports RA, Science Committee 21T-1A047
In preparing this article, the first author received financial support from the Russian Science Foundation grant 19-11-00316 and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 18-51-05009. The research of the second and third authors was carried out with the financial support of the RA Science Committee within the framework of the scientific project No. 21T-1A047.
Received: 08.02.2021
English version:
Transactions of the Moscow Mathematical Society
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1090/mosc/334
Document Type: Article
UDC: 517.968.4+534.7
MSC: 45G05, 92D30
Language: Russian
Citation: A. G. Sergeev, A. Kh. Khachatryan, Kh. A. Khachatryan, “Mathematical model of the spread of a pandemic like COVID-19”, Tr. Mosk. Mat. Obs., 83, no. 1, MCCME, M., 2022, 63–75
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{SerKhaKha22}
\by A.~G.~Sergeev, A.~Kh.~Khachatryan, Kh.~A.~Khachatryan
\paper Mathematical model of the spread of a pandemic like COVID-19
\serial Tr. Mosk. Mat. Obs.
\yr 2022
\vol 83
\issue 1
\pages 63--75
\publ MCCME
\publaddr M.
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/mmo667}
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