Study of a celular operator servers load forecasting models efficiency

The problem of predicting the possible loads in a cellular network operation can be reduced to building a forecast about the possible number of calls directed to one gateway (PGW) within a given period of time. Possessing such data for all gateways within the network, it is possible to organize the optimal distribution of resources, prevent overloading of the gateways and, as a result, failures in the entire network operation. A statistical analysis of actual data collected by automated measuring systems on the nodes of a mobile network was carried out, the data most suitable for building forecasting models were identified. The results of the research on the possibility and effectiveness of the application of the mathematical models realized in constructing such a forecast by using such machine learning methods as linear regression, KNN and random forest are presented. It has been established that in order to solve the problem of building a short-term forecast about the number of requests that are to enter the server, it is not necessary to use complex models that require computing resources. Based on the calculated quality metrics, it was found that the most accurate forecast can be obtained by using a linear regression model.