Mathematical model assessing the information impact on the electorate in social media during election campaigns

In the article, a mathematical model for assessing the information impact on the electorate in social media during election campaigns is developed. It is based on well-known mathematical models of information warfare in a structured society and differs from them by taking into account the stochastic nature of the intensity of information dissemination from external sources. The resulting model is reduced to a system of stochastic differential equations, understood in the sense of Ito. The estimate of the number of adepts and pre-adepts who give preference to the candidate in the election campaign is given by the sample average, which is calculated by the probability density function determined from the solution of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation. The solution of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation is performed according to the proposed numerical scheme based on the projection formulation of the Galerkin method. The results of the simulation in relation to the test problem are presented.