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This article is cited in 1 scientific paper (total in 1 paper)
Development of mathematical epidemic models taking into account the effects of isolating individuals in a population
T. R. Amanbaevab, S. J. Antonyc a Institute of Mathematics and Mathematical Modeling, Almaty, Kazakhstan
b Auezov South Kazakhstan University, Shymkent, Kazakhstan
c School of Chemical and Process Engineering, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Abstract:
The paper analyzes the effect of isolation of individuals of the population on the dynamics
of the epidemic. Based on the SIR model, a SIRDi model was built, which takes into account the isolation of individuals, as well as the presence of deceased patients, which is appropriate to use in cases of extensive spread of infection, when the number of infected is
comparable to the number of susceptible (i.e., those who can be infected). Simplified IRD
and IRDi models are proposed for studying the spread of an infectious disease at the initial
stage of an epidemic (or for the case when the infection rate is not high). It was found that
there is a threshold value of the isolation coefficient (fraction), which delimits the qualitatively different behavior of the epidemic indicators of a system. A comparison is made between different models. It is shown that the simplified (IRDi) and more complete (SIRDi)
models at the initial stage of the epidemic give approximately the same results.
Keywords:
epidemic, reproduction numbers, SIR model, isolation coefficient.
Received: 23.06.2021 Revised: 16.09.2021 Accepted: 04.10.2021
Citation:
T. R. Amanbaev, S. J. Antony, “Development of mathematical epidemic models taking into account the effects of isolating individuals in a population”, Matem. Mod., 33:11 (2021), 39–60; Math. Models Comput. Simul., 14:3 (2022), 466–479
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/mm4333 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/mm/v33/i11/p39
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