Econometric modeling of the balanced potential growth rate of the main Russian macroeconomics variables

The paper provides vector autoregression model with an additional regularization problem similar to the Hodrick-Prescott filter problem for modeling a single, i.e. a balanced growth rate of the structural component of the main macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy. The model includes real GDP without government consumption, real household consumption, real fixed capital investment, real export, real import and the real effective ruble exchange rate. The oil prices are exogenously included in the model. It is assumed that GDP without government consumption and its components have balanced potential growth rate. The actual discrepancies in time series are explained by the different long-term oil prices multipliers, and by the stochastic shocks. Based on the proposed model we calculate the impacts of the oil prices shocks and the structural component on GDP without government consumption and its components.