Mathematical model of spread of HIV-infection in population with dynamic risk of infection

The purpose of the research is development of methods of effectiveness assessment for the HIV-infection control in Russia. Existing approaches to modeling the spread of HIV were based on the assumption that individual risk of infection is constant. In this paper we propose a model of the virus spread in a population with a dynamic risk. The dynamics of risk described by models of formation of alcohol and drug abuse — the main factors of HIV spread in Russia. The paper discusses the main findings include: statistical data analysis, model the dynamics of HIV risk and the problem of identifying model parameters according to the regions of Russia.