A model of tuberculosis epidemiology. Data analysis and estimation of parameters

In this paper we constructed mathematical model that describes main points of tuberculosis transmission in Russia. We formulated the problem of model adjustment for a number of regions of Russia. We developed a method of estimation of model parameters and basic epidemiological characteristics that takes account of socio-economic heterogeneity and heterogeneity of medical service quality. We demonstrated that heterogeneity of prevalence of disease and infection can be governed by both the difference in medical service quality and the difference in socio-economic conditions. We simulated the dynamics of prevalence of disease and infection under changing socio-economic conditions. We concluded that improvement of socio-economic conditions has positive influence on epidemiological situation, decreasing prevalence of disease and infection substantially.