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Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, 2018, Volume 18, Issue 2, Pages 240–248
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1816-9791-2018-18-2-240-248 (Mi isu759) 		 
Scientific Part
Computer Sciences

Mathematical model for predicting the safety parameters of regional road transport system

V. A. Kushnikovabc, A. S. Bogomolovac, K. Yu. Adamovichc

a Saratov State University, 83, Astrakhanskaya Str., Saratov, 410012, Russia
b Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, 77, Politechnicheskaya Str., Saratov, 410054, Russia
c Institute of Precision Mechanics and Control, Russian Academy of Sciences, 24, Rabochaya Str., Saratov, 410028, Russia
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1816-9791-2018-18-2-240-248
Abstract: The set of models for prediction the main safety metrics of Russian regional road transport system is developed. The main metrics are taken from the documents the state inspection of traffic safety. This set of models is based on system dynamics and includes the graph of cause-effect relations between variables of the system and the system of nonlinear differential equations. Solving this system allows to analyze the impact of external factors to the variables of models. The adequacy of models was verified using the official statistics of the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate. In this paper presented the forecast of the traffic accidents count. According to the obtained solution the modeling of the traffic accidents dynamics was implemented.
Key words: traffic accident, car, traffic safety, accidents, cause-effect approach, system dynamics models, Forrester's model, Meadows model.
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
UDC: 510.67, 519.673
Language: Russian
Citation: V. A. Kushnikov, A. S. Bogomolov, K. Yu. Adamovich, “Mathematical model for predicting the safety parameters of regional road transport system”, Izv. Saratov Univ. Math. Mech. Inform., 18:2 (2018), 240–248
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{KusBogAda18}
\by V.~A.~Kushnikov, A.~S.~Bogomolov, K.~Yu.~Adamovich
\paper Mathematical model for predicting the safety parameters of regional road transport system
\jour Izv. Saratov Univ. Math. Mech. Inform.
\yr 2018
\vol 18
\issue 2
\pages 240--248
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/isu759}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.18500/1816-9791-2018-18-2-240-248}
\elib{https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=35085053}
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