Mathematical model for predicting the safety parameters of regional road transport system

The set of models for prediction the main safety metrics of Russian regional road transport system is developed. The main metrics are taken from the documents the state inspection of traffic safety. This set of models is based on system dynamics and includes the graph of cause-effect relations between variables of the system and the system of nonlinear differential equations. Solving this system allows to analyze the impact of external factors to the variables of models. The adequacy of models was verified using the official statistics of the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate. In this paper presented the forecast of the traffic accidents count. According to the obtained solution the modeling of the traffic accidents dynamics was implemented.