On modeling the development of the region in conditions of high uncertainty and lack of data

The preprint is an example of the practical implementation of a modified modeling methodology using fuzzy cognitive maps, which was presented by the author earlier in the publication in "M.V. Keldysh IPM Preprints". A variant of the model of the development of the RF region in conditions of high uncertainty of the external environment and with a lack of initial data is described. This situation is typical, for example, for the moments of the outbreak of epidemics or conflict confrontation.