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Preprints of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2020, 020, 24 pp.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20948/prepr-2020-23
(Mi ipmp2811)
 

A study of statistical methods for identifying fictitious election results. Part 2. Clots of turnout and results

A. V. Podlazov
Abstract: The most challenging way to falsify the election results is to assign target percentages of voter turnout and the results of the participants. This gives rise to the appearance of clots of these electoral characteristics at the corresponding values. I develop, ground and explore test to identify such frauds. This test is strictly formal, bases only on official data on the election results and doesn't use any assumptions about voters’ behavior or reference results. I pay special attention to a detailed description of the specifics of organized fraud in various subjects of the federation and in elections of different years.
Fictitious results are found for 5$\div$6% of the electoral cases of 2000–2018 federal elections in Russia. At least 16 subjects of Russian Federation are affected by mass frauds of this type.
Keywords: electoral statistics, electoral frauds, distribution bar chart, clots of turnout and results, statistical hypotheses.
Funding agency Grant number
Russian Foundation for Basic Research 18-01-00619_а
Document Type: Preprint
Language: Russian
Citation: A. V. Podlazov, “A study of statistical methods for identifying fictitious election results. Part 2. Clots of turnout and results”, Keldysh Institute preprints, 2020, 020, 24 pp.
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{Pod20}
\by A.~V.~Podlazov
\paper A study of statistical methods for identifying fictitious election results. Part~2. Clots of turnout and results
\jour Keldysh Institute preprints
\yr 2020
\papernumber 020
\totalpages 24
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/ipmp2811}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.20948/prepr-2020-23}
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    Препринты Института прикладной математики им. М. В. Келдыша РАН
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