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A study of statistical methods for identifying fictitious election results. Part 2. Clots of turnout and results
A. V. Podlazov
Abstract:
The most challenging way to falsify the election results is to assign target percentages of voter turnout and the results of the participants. This gives rise to the appearance of clots of these electoral characteristics at the corresponding values. I develop, ground and explore test to identify such frauds. This test is strictly formal, bases only on official data on the election results and doesn't use any assumptions about voters’ behavior or reference results. I pay special attention to a detailed description of the specifics of organized fraud in various subjects of the federation and in elections of different years.
Fictitious results are found for 5$\div$6% of the electoral cases of 2000–2018 federal elections in Russia. At least 16 subjects of Russian Federation are affected by mass frauds of this type.
Keywords:
electoral statistics, electoral frauds, distribution bar chart, clots of turnout and results, statistical hypotheses.
Citation:
A. V. Podlazov, “A study of statistical methods for identifying fictitious election results. Part 2. Clots of turnout and results”, Keldysh Institute preprints, 2020, 020, 24 pp.
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/ipmp2811 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/ipmp/y2020/p20
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Statistics & downloads: |
Abstract page: | 137 | Full-text PDF : | 71 |
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