Is Nonlinear Dynamics the Key to Theoretical History?

It is proposed to develop new interdisciplinary approach, the theoretical history. Its subject is not only the analysis of the single realized trajectory for civilization or ethnos development, but investigation of its field of possibilities, 'virtual development trajectories', bifurcation points. This is an attempt to introduce 'subjunctive mood' into the history. The attempt is based on the potential of philosophy of history, created by Gegel, Marx, Toinby, Gumilev and their followers and on modern methods of synergetics, nonlinear dynamics, mathematical psychology, sociology, ecology and other fields of science. The contemporary problems of nonlinear dynamics are compared with difficulties of historical analysis. It is shown that nonlinear science probably has grown till understanding the problems of social sciences dealing with supercomplicated objects. The paper contains the brief sketch of the research program, and its implementation could be the first step to creation of theoretical history.