Preventive analytics in safety problems to develop critical infrastructures

This paper proposes a method for situational modeling of industrial-natural complexes (INCs) at various levels of their safety management: from solving issues of strategic development for systems of a regional scale and above to operative control of the structure for specialized INCs when multiple decision-making is required on a limited set of known alternatives. The method provides an intellectualized computational-logical processing of information regarding different types of characteristics of such complexes with the possibility of their analysis and comparison in statics and dynamics. The relevance of the work is determined by the complication of INCs in the modern world with the resulted strengthening of their influence on each other, and on the other hand, by the emergence of large amounts of additional information about the behavior of INCs in connection with the accelerating development of the Internet of Things. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in unification of using tools for studying complex non-stationary structures within the framework of the cause-and-effect paradigm, as well as in focusing on applying expert knowledge for setting and solving problems of multi-criteria comparison and selection of preferred options for the structure of an INC. The resulting alternatives, if necessary, can be further investigated in more detail by their imitation with using digital twins of INC’s components specialized for solving safety problems.