Doklady Rossijskoj Akademii Nauk. Mathematika, Informatika, Processy Upravlenia
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Doklady Rossijskoj Akademii Nauk. Mathematika, Informatika, Processy Upravlenia, 2020, Volume 494, Pages 80–85
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686954320050264
(Mi danma123)
 

This article is cited in 3 scientific papers (total in 3 papers)

CONTROL PROCESSES

Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability

A. A. Akaev, V. A. Sadovnichii
Full-text PDF (343 kB) Citations (3)
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Abstract: By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy.
Keywords: economic dynamics, speculative growth lending, Minsky’s theory of financial instability, management of credit expansion and contraction, mathematical model for forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in an unstable economy.
Funding agency Grant number
Russian Science Foundation 20–61–46004
This work was performed at the Institute of Complex System Mathematical Research of Moscow State University and was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant no. 20-61-46004, the project “Global development and limits of growth in the 21st century: Simulation and forecast”.
Received: 18.06.2020
Revised: 27.07.2020
Accepted: 22.07.2020
English version:
Doklady Mathematics, 2020, Volume 102, Issue 2, Pages 422–426
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064562420050245
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
UDC: 330.354
Language: Russian
Citation: A. A. Akaev, V. A. Sadovnichii, “Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability”, Dokl. RAN. Math. Inf. Proc. Upr., 494 (2020), 80–85; Dokl. Math., 102:2 (2020), 422–426
Citation in format AMSBIB
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\paper Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability
\jour Dokl. RAN. Math. Inf. Proc. Upr.
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\vol 494
\pages 80--85
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\crossref{https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686954320050264}
\zmath{https://zbmath.org/?q=an:1475.91190}
\elib{https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=44344655}
\transl
\jour Dokl. Math.
\yr 2020
\vol 102
\issue 2
\pages 422--426
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064562420050245}
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  • This publication is cited in the following 3 articles:
    Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
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    Doklady Rossijskoj Akademii Nauk. Mathematika, Informatika, Processy Upravlenia Doklady Rossijskoj Akademii Nauk. Mathematika, Informatika, Processy Upravlenia
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    Full-text PDF :108
    References:17
     
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