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This article is cited in 3 scientific papers (total in 3 papers)
CONTROL PROCESSES
Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability
A. A. Akaev, V. A. Sadovnichii
Abstract:
By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy.
Keywords:
economic dynamics, speculative growth lending, Minsky’s theory of financial instability, management of credit expansion and contraction, mathematical model for forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in an unstable economy.
Received: 18.06.2020 Revised: 27.07.2020 Accepted: 22.07.2020
Citation:
A. A. Akaev, V. A. Sadovnichii, “Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability”, Dokl. RAN. Math. Inf. Proc. Upr., 494 (2020), 80–85; Dokl. Math., 102:2 (2020), 422–426
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/danma123 https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/danma/v494/p80
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Abstract page: | 177 | Full-text PDF : | 110 | References: | 18 |
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